As we get higher in the Top 30, the balance between potential Olympic success and WTCS success becomes more pronounced.
At their best, everyone in this section can medal in the WTCS and some of the difficulty in separating them arises from whether they are likely to have a couple of outstanding performances or if they are likelier to be consistent across the season. Perhaps more than anywhere else in the ranking, the difference between who would win on any given day (for which Olympic success can be a proxy) and who would perform best over the course of the year (as demanded by the WTCS) is tested to its greatest extent.
There will always be an element of subjectivity in these rankings so feel free to disagree with any names or suggest your own in the comments below.
12) Csongor Lehmann HUN (2023: 15th)
Naturally, we start with an athlete that has not yet medalled in the WTCS. However, Lehmann has shown that he possesses all of the tools required to medal in the Series. As a young athlete, he simply needs to bide his time until he can seize his moment.
The 2021 World U23 champion finished 10th overall in the WTCS last year and showed that consistency is not a quality he lacks. Finishes of 7th in Pontevedra, 7th in Cagliari, 9th in Yokohama, and 10th in Hamburg spoke to a very good season. The Hungarian athlete has been well-balanced between the swim and run and has no real weakness.
Going forward, his challenge will simply be to find the extra 1% that separates the medallists from the rest.
Last year, Lehmann won the Tiszaujvaros World Cup to go with his win in Karlovy Vary in 2022. As soon as he adds the final touches to his racing, he will contend for medals and his consistency could carry him to an overall WTCS podium in the near future.
11) Jelle Geens BEL (2023: 5th)
Let’s start with the good. Geens won the bronze medal at WTCS Montreal last year while he also logged a solid 7th place in Yokohama. In the first half of 2023, Geens thus built upon a strong 2022 that included 4th place finishes in Bermuda and Montreal, a 5th place finish in Hamburg, and most memorably a bronze medal at the WTCS Final in Abu Dhabi.
Having won WTCS Abu Dhabi in 2021, he is also a WTCS race winner from the current Olympic cycle. That fact alone should probably justify a higher ranking.
However, there are two factors that limit Geens’ ranking. His post-Montreal form did not inspire confidence and he logged a best finish of 18th in Paris. To a degree, his wobble in form could be explained by the life change of becoming a father. It’s a major shift and once he has worked through the early phase of fatherhood and found a new work-life rhythm, his form will likely return.
The second factor, however, is much more deep-rooted. Geens’ swimming has been a long-standing vulnerability and there are few signs of it moving in the right direction. As seen with Kristian Blummenfelt previously in the ranking, a weak swim is a major Achilles heel at the top level. All too often, Geens spends part of his race fighting to regain lost time and places.
When it works, like in Abu Dhabi in 2021, the outcome can be startling. Yet it seems Geens is increasingly becoming exposed in the current climate as the front-runners try to push the pace in the water.
All things considered, Geens can be a top-5 athlete and he proved his abilities less than a year ago. The question marks over his recent form and swimming, though, hold him back a little.
10) Vincent Luis FRA (2023: 4th)
After a sensational win at WTCS Bermuda at the end of 2022, hopes were high for Luis heading into the 2023 season. A prolonged spell of difficulty had left some wondering if he would regain the form of old but Bermuda showed he had plenty yet to offer.
When he logged a 4th place finish in Abu Dhabi to kick-start last year, then, the omens were very promising. However, that was all his season had in store.
Injury ended the French athlete’s year before it really got going, to the point that he does not have a single result from the Second Period of Olympic Qualification.
It was only a year ago that Luis was a clear contender to medal in the WTCS, at the Olympics and maybe even capable of fighting for the world title once more. The question is whether he can can he drag himself back yet again. There comes a point when an athlete experiences an injury too far and as younger faces rise in the men’s ranks there is no guarantee that Luis will be back on top.
Prior to Bermuda, he was not at his best in 2022 with his health again holding him back. If he had been more consistent prior to his latest setback, it would be safer to rank him higher. However, with injuries proving more frequent than WTCS medals in recent years, we have hedged our bets.
On his day, Luis remains one the best single day racers in the business. Yet his injury record means he cannot be counted upon to last for a whole season.
9) Manoel Messias BRA (2023: 9th)
Messias is another athlete that so far has fallen into the single day racer category in his career. When he is on song, there are only a handful of athletes that can match him.
He kicked off 2023 with a bronze medal at WTCS Abu Dhabi and went on to add a silver medal at WTCS Montreal. That went with the bronze medal he won at WTCS Cagliari in late 2022, giving him three medals in less than a year.
In addition, he won the Vina del Mar World Cup at the end of 2023. In turn, that went hand-in-hand with his win at the Valencia World Cup in 2022.
Armed with a ferocious kick on the run and remarkable speed, Messias can be an absolute nightmare to race at his best. He is also a savvy racer, which he sometimes does not get credit for. His late attack on the bike in Valencia or timing of his attack on the run in Vina del Mar are two good examples of how he is not just quick, but also smart tactically.
However, Messias is probably the least consistent athlete in this section and for that reason is the lowest ranked of the athletes to win multiple WTCS medals in 2023. He had off days in both Paris and Pontevedra while he only finished 40th in Sunderland in a field that was ripe for him to claim a third WTCS medal of the season. Moreover, a lack of good Olympic distance results in 2023 is also a concern.
In general, though, Messias’ improvement curve and multiple medals puts him ahead of stalwarts like Geens and Luis. He should be good value for a couple more medals this year but few know what he will do in between them.
8) Tim Hellwig GER (2023: 27th)
This time last year, Hellwig snuck into the Top 30, despite his lowly world ranking, over more consistent names due to his ability to win medals. He won WTCS Hamburg in 2021 and was the silver medallist at the World U23 Championships that same year (behind Lehmann).
In 2023, Hellwig added the consistency he had previously lacked. Most importantly, that medal winning ability was on full display.
He earned a fantastic silver medal at the WTCS Final in Pontevedra, putting him back on the podium two years after his Hamburg triumph. Alongside that, he finished 4th in Montreal, 7th in Paris and 8th in Hamburg to claim 8th overall in the Series. With top-8 finishes over all three formats last year, and strong results at the two biggest races, Hellwig proved his WTCS credentials.
In addition, his racing nous continues to impress. Hellwig won the World Cups in Chengdu and Tongyeong, deploying contrasting styles at each. Not only were they indicative of an athlete brimming with confidence, but they showed an adaptability and versatility that will serve will him going forward.
Although Messias won one more WTCS medal than Hellwig in 2023, the German athlete was more consistent and performed better at the bigger races. He is also a lot younger than Geens and Luis and can be forecasted to rise further in the near future.
After a difficult 2022 Hellwig is really building up a head of steam and has proven that he will be one to watch in 2024.
7) Pierre Le Corre FRA (2023: 14th)
It is hard to imagine a more perfect season than the one enjoyed by Le Corre in 2023. Amid his various side quests, he notched a maiden WTCS win in Sunderland. In doing so, he became the oldest ever first-time winner in the Series.
At the end of the season, he added a bronze medal at WTCS Pontevedra which also put him on the French Olympic team. Having also finished 4th in Paris and 5th in Cagliari, he proved himself to be a consistent force in the Series. He did not finish outside the top-5 once, a feat matched only by Dorian Coninx, the world champion, and Le Corre had the best overall result of athletes with only four scores. He ended up in 6th overall even without a full quota of events.
His Paris result was also noteworthy as he was out-sprinted by Dorian Coninx and Vasco Vilaca at the line. While he did not make it onto the podium, Le Corre demonstrated that he will be a prominent figure at the Olympic Games.
For good measure, he threw in a World Cup win in Tangier.
There is little more to say about Le Corre’s wonderful 2023. Indeed, the real conversation to be had is why he is not ranked higher. Ultimately, Le Corre settles in this spot as we have have seen the best he has to offer, which itself may be enough to land an Olympic medal.
The men ahead are all several years younger and broadly matched or surpassed his feats last year. Given the age gap, if feels likelier that they will have more space to improve. Meanwhile, being fairly close to the end of his career, it is unclear for how long Le Corre’s good vibes revival will continue or just how far it will go.
If he continues to build on what he did last year, he could make a mockery of these rankings and take a stunning Olympic gold. On the other hand, maybe last year was an Indian summer in an already-distinguished career. We will find out soon.
